05
Feb
08

Super Sized Politics

 Super Tuesday 

On Sunday we witnessed one of the most entertaining and improbable Super Bowls in years as the New York Giants walked away with a stunning last minute win over the New England Patriots.  Will the entertaining and improbable nature of Super Bowl Sunday carryover to Super Tuesday or will there be defining victories tonight? 

There has never been a more important single primary day in the history of American politics than today when millions of Americans from coast to coast will head to their states primaries and caucuses to cast votes in 21 Republican and 23 Democratic contests.  Many of these contests are already considered to be locked up for one candidate (On the Republican side — Arizona – McCain, New York – McCain, Connecticut – McCain, New Jersey – McCain, Utah – Romney, and Massachusetts – Romney) (On the Democratic side — New York – Clinton, Massachusetts – Clinton, and Illinois – Obama).  That being said, these aren’t the states to pay attention to tonight if you want to get a sense of who will be celebrating Fat Tuesday with key victories.

On the Republican side the states to watch tonight are California, Missouri, Tennessee & Georgia. 

California is the big prize with 170 delegates up for grabs and recent polls have shown a tightening race with Gov. Romney slightly ahead.  Both Gov. Romney and Sen. McCain are projected to gain a large number of delegates, but a larger than projected margin of victory for either of these candidates could be huge in the march to the nomination. 

Missouri has voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1904, except in 1956, and has gained bellwether state status as a state that nearly mimics the economic, demographic and political makeup of the country.  Today’s open primary in Missouri is a winner takes all format and all three Republican candidates are in a tight race for the state’s 58 delegates.

Tennessee has 52 delegates up for grabs tonight and also appears to be a deadlock between the three Republican candidates.

Georgia will be the early indicator of what might lay ahead tonight as its polls close at 7:00pm Eastern Time.  In recent days Gov. Romney has closed the gap, but Sen. McCain continues to hold a slight lead.  69 delegates will be distributed based on a proportional basis tonight.

On the Democratic side the two big states to watch are California and Missouri.  It looks like the races in Arizona, Colorado, Alabama and Connecticut could also be interesting to watch.

California offers up 370 delegates and is a state that Sen. Clinton has enjoyed a healthy lead until recently.  Several of the polls in the past few days now show Sen. Obama with a slight lead.  This will be the big one to watch on the Democratic side tonight.

Missouri will hand out her 72 delegates tonight only after the results of a close and hard fought contest are finalized.  Sen. Clinton holds a slim lead, but recent polls show Sen. Obama gaining ground.

It is clear that no Republican will gain the 1,191 delegates needed to seal the nomination tonight.  Nor will a Democrat gain the 2,025 delegates they need to claim victory.  What is clear is that the momentum that can be gained tonight will be very important as the focus moves to next weeks contests in Maryland, DC and Virginia and further down the road on March 4 when Texas and Ohio get their chance to weigh in.

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39 Responses to “Super Sized Politics”


  1. 1 Jerry
    February 5, 2008 at 4:26 pm

    The one thing we will know coming out of this will be the power of talk radio. They can get people worked up enought to call Congress on things like Immigration, but can they change people’s votes? We’ll know based upon how well Romney does compared to Huckabee, I think.

  2. 2 Phil A Buster
    February 5, 2008 at 4:35 pm

    WEST VIRGINIA UPDATE

    Gov. Huckabee has walked away with the first win of the day in the West Virginia caucus. With this win he claims 18 delegates.

    Gov. Huckabee – 52%

    Gov. Romney – 47%

    Sen. McCain – 1%

    Gov. Huckabee won on the second ballot. After the first ballot Gov. Romney lead with 41% of the vote with Gov. Huckabee at 37% and Sen. McCain at 16%. I’m not sure if this is an indicator of trends tonight, but it clearly looks like the majority of Sen. McCain’s supporters went to Huckabee on the second ballot and Gov. Romney’s campaign has already released a press release claiming that this was a typical “back room Washington deal” struck by McCain and Huckabee’s people.

  3. 4 Phil A Buster
    February 5, 2008 at 8:03 pm

    GEORGIA UPDATE

    Democratic Race – Sen. Obama projected as winner of Georgia.

    Republican Race – Being called too close to call in what is shaping up to be a very tight three way race.

  4. 5 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 9:03 pm

    CT, IL, MA, & NJ Republican Updates

    Sen. McCain projected winner in Connecticut, Illinois & New Jersey.

    Gov. Romney projected winner in Massachusetts.

  5. 6 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 9:04 pm

    IL & OK Democratic Updates

    Sen. Obama projected winner in Illinois.

    Sen. Clinton projected winner in Oklahoma.

  6. 7 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 9:10 pm

    Fox calls Alabama for Gov. Huckabee.

  7. 8 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 9:16 pm

    TENNESSEE UPDATE

    NBC calling Tennessee for Sen. Clinton.

  8. 9 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 9:31 pm

    ARKANSAS UPDATE

    Sen. Clinton & Gov. Huckabee projected winners in Arkansas.

  9. 10 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 9:35 pm

    DELAWARE UPDATE

    NBC calling Delaware for Sen. McCain.

  10. 11 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 9:58 pm

    MASSACHUSETTS UPDATE

    Sen. Clinton is the projected winner.

  11. 12 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 10:04 pm

    NEW YORK UPDATE – DEM

    Sen. Clinton is the projected winner.

  12. 13 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 10:05 pm

    DELAWARE UPDATE – DEM

    Sen. Obama is the projected winner.

  13. 14 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 10:11 pm

    NEW JERSEY UPDATE – DEM

    Fox calls New Jersey for Sen. Clinton.

  14. 15 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 10:20 pm

    NEW YORK UPDATE – REP

    NBC projects Sen. McCain as the winner in New York.

  15. 16 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 10:25 pm

    ALABAMA UPDATE – DEM

    NBC projects Sen. Obama as the winner of Alabama.

  16. 17 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 10:39 pm

    KANSAS UPDATE – DEM

    Fox is projecting Sen. Obama wins Kansas.

  17. 18 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 10:52 pm

    OKLAHOMA UPDATE – REP

    NBC projects Sen. McCain wins Oklahoma.

  18. 19 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 11:01 pm

    UTAH UPDATE

    Fox projecting Gov. Romney and Sen. Obama win Utah.

  19. 20 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 11:03 pm

    NORTH DAKOTA UPDATE

    Fox projects Sen. Obama wins North Dakota.

  20. 21 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 11:18 pm

    CONNECTICUT UPDATE – DEM

    Fox calls Connecticut for Sen. Obama.

  21. 22 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 11:30 pm

    ALABAMA UPDATE – REP

    CNN projects Gov. Huckabee wins Alabama.

  22. 23 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 11:32 pm

    NORTH DAKOTA UPDATE – REP

    Fox projects Gov. Romney wins North Dakota.

  23. 24 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 11:33 pm

    TENNESSEE UPDATE – REP

    Fox projects Gov. Huckabee wins Tennessee.

  24. 25 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 11:41 pm

    ARIZONA UPDATE – REP

    Fox calls Arizona for Sen. McCain.

  25. 26 philabuster
    February 5, 2008 at 11:42 pm

    GEORGIA UPDATE – REP

    Fox calls Georgia for Gov. Huckabee.

  26. 27 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 12:04 am

    MINNESOTA & IDAHO UPDATE – DEM

    Both states called for Sen. Obama.

  27. 28 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 12:14 am

    MONTANA UPDATE – REP

    Fox calls Montana for Gov. Romney.

  28. 29 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 12:15 am

    COLORADO UPDATE – DEM

    Fox calls Colorado for Sen. Obama.

  29. 30 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 12:30 am

    MINNESOTA UPDATE – REP

    CNN calls Minnesota for Gov. Romney.

  30. 31 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 12:50 am

    COLORADO UPDATE – REP

    CNN calls Colorado for Gov. Romney.

  31. 32 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 1:12 am

    CALIFORNIA UPDATE – DEM

    NBC calls California for Sen. Clinton.

  32. 33 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 1:15 am

    CALIFORNIA UPDATE – REP

    NBC calls California for Sen. McCain.

  33. 34 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 1:16 am

    MISSOURI UPDATE

    NBC Calls Missouri for Sen. McCain.

  34. 35 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 1:41 am

    MISSOURI UPDATE – DEM

    NBC calls Missouri for Sen. Obama.

  35. 36 Phil A Buster
    February 6, 2008 at 1:44 am

    ALASKA UPDATE – DEM

    NBC calls Alaska for Sen. Obama.

  36. 37 Steve
    February 6, 2008 at 10:46 am

    Huckabee has to go at this point. Question is, did Romney do well enough to stay in?

  37. 38 philabuster
    February 6, 2008 at 4:36 pm

    Steve –

    I’ve talked to several Romney folks today and there is a frank discussion going on within the campaign about their next move. It seems that some are in favor of him to continue and others are in favor of him standing down so not to hurt his chances in future elections. I have a feeling we will know for certain his plans after he speaks to CPAC tomorrow.

    Phil


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